Spatial Interaction Regional Model for the Mexican Economy (SIRMME): A Special Case for Mexico City Metropolitan Area
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2016.05.08Keywords:
Spatial regional model, differential regional growth, simulation forecasting, Mexican economy, Mexico City Metropolitan AreaAbstract
This paper analyzes empirically a macro model and a regional model to explain Mexico and Mexico City economies respectively. Typically, regional economic modeling considers either a top-down or bottom-up approach to model regional difference in economic growth. This paper shows results that explain regional difference in Mexico from the bottom-up through a special case that focuses on the spatial interaction between Mexico City -the main economic engine of Mexico- and the rest of the country during the period 2000-2010. Our results indicate that variables associated with human capital, internal migration, "creative class", micro-firms and spatial interaction among micro-regions were conditioning the differential growth between Mexico City and the whole country during the period 2000-2010. Likewise, we present econometric results of a typical macro model that explains economic growth in Mexico by different income effects on components of aggregate demand during the period 1993-2010. The purpose of both exercises is to motivate future research for the Mexican case to link macro components (such as export driven forces, Mexico´s dependency to the USA´s business cycle, loss of government spending, etc.) with their local counterparts such as agglomeration economies, human and creative capital stock, regional spillovers, natural resources, dynamic population, etc. to explain regional differential growth.References
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Bassilière D., Bossier F., Caruso F., Hendrickx K., Hoorelbeke D., Lohest O. 2008. Elaboration d'un modèle de projections régionales. Une première application du modèle HEMREG aux perspectives économiques nationales 2007-2012, Bruxelles, Bureau Fédéral du Plan.
Bell F. W. 1967. An econometric forecasting regional model for a region, Journal of Regional Science, vol. 7,2.
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Castro, C., E. Loría, y M. A. Mendoza. 1997. EUDOXIO. Modelo macroeconómico de la economía mexicana, México, UNAM, Facultad de Economia.
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Florida, R., 2005. The Flight of the Creative Class. The New Global Competition for Talent. Harper Business, New York.
Garcés, D. 2008. Análisis de las funciones de importación y exportación de México (1980-2000), El Trimestre Económico, vol. LXXV.
German-Soto, Vicente. 2005. Generación del producto interno bruto mexicano por entidad federativa, 1940-1992. El Trimestre Económico, 72(3): 617–653.
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Glaeser, E. 2007. The Economics approach to Cities, working paper 13696, NBER.
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Gustely, D. R. and T. C. Ireland. 1980. Developing a quarterly counterpart to an existing annual regional econometric model, The Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Volume 13, No. 1, pp-25-47.
Gutiérrez, E., P. Mejía y B. Cruz. 2005. Ciclos económicos y sector externo en México: evidencia de relaciones cambiante en el tiempo, Estudios Económicos de Desarrollo Internacional, AEEADE, vol. 5-1.
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Klein, L. R. 1969. The specification of regional econometric models, Papers of the Regional Science Association, 23, 105-115.
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Loveridge, S. 2004. A typology and assessment of multi-sector regional economic impact models, Regional Studies, 38(3), pp. 305-317.
Mendoza, M.A. 2000. La inversión privada y de Gobierno en el crecimiento económico de México, Política y Cultura, núm. 103 Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Xochimilco.
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Rey, S.J. et M.G. Boarnet. 2004. A taxonomy of spatial econometric models for simultaneous equation systems, in Anselin, L., R.J.G.M. Florax and S.J. Rey (eds.), Advances in Spatial Econometrics, Springer.
Ruiz, R. y F. Venegas. 2007. Un modelo macroeconométrico de simulación con microfundamentos para la economía mexicana, Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, vol. XVI, núm. 2.
Storper M. And A. J. Scott. 2009. Rethinking human capital, creativity and urban growth, Journal of Economic Geography, 9, pp. 147–167.
Urzúa, C., G. Esquivel, L. M. Lagunes y J. L. de la Cruz. 2000. Proyecto ECONOMEXICO 1. Un espacio de acercamiento para la comprensión de la Macroeconometría, México, COLMEX, Centro de Estudios Económicos
Bassilière D., Bossier F., Caruso F., Hendrickx K., Hoorelbeke D., Lohest O. 2008. Elaboration d'un modèle de projections régionales. Une première application du modèle HEMREG aux perspectives économiques nationales 2007-2012, Bruxelles, Bureau Fédéral du Plan.
Bell F. W. 1967. An econometric forecasting regional model for a region, Journal of Regional Science, vol. 7,2.
Bolton, R. 1980. Multiregional models in policy analysis in Adams, G. and Glickman N.J. (eds.) Modelling the multiregion economic system: Theory, data and policy, Heath/Lexington Books.
Bolton, R. 1980. Multiregional models; introduction to a symposium, Journal of Regional Science, vol.20.
Capello, R. 2007. A forecasting territorial model of regional growth: the MASST model, Ann Reg Sci, 41: pp. 753–787.
Capello R. and Nijkamp P. (eds). 2009. Handbook of Regional Growth and Development Theories, Edwar Elgar
Capello, R. and U. Fratesi. 2012. Modelling Regional Growth: An Advanced MASST Model, Spatial Economic Analysis, Vol. 7, No. 3.
Cappellin, R., B. Chizzolini and V. Santandrea. 1987. A multiregional econometric model of the Italian economy: The growth of service employment, Papers of the Regional Science Association, vol. 61, pp.3-19.
Castro, C., E. Loría, y M. A. Mendoza. 1997. EUDOXIO. Modelo macroeconómico de la economía mexicana, México, UNAM, Facultad de Economia.
Courbis, R. 1994. La modelización multiregional en Europa Occidental; balance y perspectives in Pulido A. y Cabrer B. (eds.) Datos, técnicas y resultados del moderno análisis económico regional, Mundi-Prensa, Madrid, pp. 145-181.
Florida, R., 2005. The Flight of the Creative Class. The New Global Competition for Talent. Harper Business, New York.
Garcés, D. 2008. Análisis de las funciones de importación y exportación de México (1980-2000), El Trimestre Económico, vol. LXXV.
German-Soto, Vicente. 2005. Generación del producto interno bruto mexicano por entidad federativa, 1940-1992. El Trimestre Económico, 72(3): 617–653.
German-Soto, Vicente. 2015. Updated database of Mexican States GDP, http://works.bepress.com/vicente_german_soto/14/
Glickman N.J. 1971. An econometric forecasting model for the Philadelphia region, Journal of Regional Science, vol. 11-1, pp.15-32
Glickman, N. J. 1982. Using empirical models for regional policy analysis in Abegov et al. (eds.) Regional development modeling: theory and practice, Studies in Regional Science and Urban Economics, vol. 8, pp. 85-104.
Glaeser, E. 2007. The Economics approach to Cities, working paper 13696, NBER.
Green, 2003. Análisis Econométrico, Prentice Hall, Quinta edición.
Gustely, D. R. and T. C. Ireland. 1980. Developing a quarterly counterpart to an existing annual regional econometric model, The Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Volume 13, No. 1, pp-25-47.
Gutiérrez, E., P. Mejía y B. Cruz. 2005. Ciclos económicos y sector externo en México: evidencia de relaciones cambiante en el tiempo, Estudios Económicos de Desarrollo Internacional, AEEADE, vol. 5-1.
Hanson, G. 1998. North American Economic Integration and Industry Location, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1998, vol. 14, issue 2, pages 30-44.
Hamilton, J. 1994. Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press.
Hendry, D. 1995. Dynamic Econometric, Oxford University Press.
Hewings, G J.D., S. Nazara, D. Chokri. 2004. Channels of synthesis forty years on: integrated analysis of spatial economic systems, Journal Geographical Systems, 6:7–25
Jefferson, C. W. 1982. The Northern Ireland Regional Econometric Model, Social Science Research Council (Northern Ireland Panel), http://webird.tcd.ie/bitstream/2262/7910/1/jssisiVol XXIVPartIV_132138.pdf
Klein, L. R. 1969. The specification of regional econometric models, Papers of the Regional Science Association, 23, 105-115.
Krugman, P. 1991.Geography and Trade, The MIT Press.
Lemelin, A. 2008. Mòdelesèconomiquesrègionaux: un survol de la littèrature, Institut de la statistique du Québec, http://www.stat.gouv.qc.ca/clacon/modeles_econo_regions.pdf
Loveridge, S. 2004. A typology and assessment of multi-sector regional economic impact models, Regional Studies, 38(3), pp. 305-317.
Mendoza, M.A. 2000. La inversión privada y de Gobierno en el crecimiento económico de México, Política y Cultura, núm. 103 Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Xochimilco.
Quintana, L. and M.A. Mendoza (2008) Econometría Básica, Modelos y Aplicaciones a la Economía Mexicana, editado por la FES-Acatlán, DGAPA y Plaza y Valdés.
Quintana, L. and M.A. Mendoza (2016) Econometría Aplicada Utilizando R, Ebook FES-Acatlán-UNAM and DGAPA-UNAM, http://www.saree.com.mx/econometriaR/
Rey, S.J. et M.G. Boarnet. 2004. A taxonomy of spatial econometric models for simultaneous equation systems, in Anselin, L., R.J.G.M. Florax and S.J. Rey (eds.), Advances in Spatial Econometrics, Springer.
Ruiz, R. y F. Venegas. 2007. Un modelo macroeconométrico de simulación con microfundamentos para la economía mexicana, Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, vol. XVI, núm. 2.
Storper M. And A. J. Scott. 2009. Rethinking human capital, creativity and urban growth, Journal of Economic Geography, 9, pp. 147–167.
Urzúa, C., G. Esquivel, L. M. Lagunes y J. L. de la Cruz. 2000. Proyecto ECONOMEXICO 1. Un espacio de acercamiento para la comprensión de la Macroeconometría, México, COLMEX, Centro de Estudios Económicos
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Published
2016-05-06
How to Cite
Mendoza-González, M. Ángel, Valdivia-López, M., & Quintana-Romero, L. (2016). Spatial Interaction Regional Model for the Mexican Economy (SIRMME): A Special Case for Mexico City Metropolitan Area. Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 5, 84–100. https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2016.05.08
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Special Issues | Economic Growth and Convergence: Analyses for the Mexican States
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