Pair-Wise Approach to Test the Regional Convergence Hypothesis in Mexico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2016.05.06Keywords:
Unit root, Panel data models, Pair-wise test, Economic growth, Stochastic convergenceAbstract
This paper assesses the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita convergence of the 32 Mexican States in the period 1940-2010 through the method proposed by Pesaran (2007), which is based on the convergence stochastic criterion. One of the main advantages of this method is not only on a model of leading economy, also on a pair-wise approach that considers all possible gap pairs of per capita logarithms of all the Mexican States analyzed in the sample. According to this method, all the differences or output gaps of the States must be stationary around a constant mean. Most results provide evidence against the hypothesis of convergence especially for the total sample from 1940 to 2010 and the first period from 1940 to 1985. However, mixed evidence of this hypothesis was observed in the second period from 1986 to 2010. Additionally, the test results applied to a set of States considered as the richest suggest these findings are not due to the unique behavior of these States.References
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Carrillo, Mario (2001). La teoría neoclásica de la convergencia y la realidad del desarrollo regional en México. Problemas del Desarrollo, 127 (32), Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México, 107-134.
Carrion-i-Silvestre J. L, German-Soto V. (2007). Stochastic conver-gence amongst Mexican states. Reg Stud, 41, 531–541.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00343400601120221
–––––––––– (2009). Panel Data Stochastic Convergence Analysis of the Mexican Regions. Empirical Economics,37 (2), 303–327.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-008-0234-x
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Díaz-Bautista, Alejandro (2003). Apertura comercial y crecimiento regional. Comercio Exterior, 53 (11), Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior, México, 995-1000.
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Durlauf, S. and Johnson, P. (1995). Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 365-84.
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Esquivel, Gerardo (2000). Geografia y desarrollo economico en Mexico. Latin American Research Network Working Paper 389. Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department, Washington, D.C.
Galor, O. (1996). Convergence? Inferences from theoretical models. The Economic Journal 106 (437), 1056-1069.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2235378
German-Soto V. (2005). Generación del Producto Interno Bruto Mexicano por entidad federativa, 1940–1992. El Trimestre Económico, 72, 617–653.
Germán-Soto, Vicente (2015). Population Statistics by Mexican States, from the Selected Works of Vicente German-Soto.
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Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: how sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?. Journal of Econometrics, 54 (1-3), 159-178.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-y
Le Pen, Y., Sévi, B. (2010). On the non-convergence of energy intensities: evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach. Ecol. Econ. 69, 641–650.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.10.001
Mendoza-González, Miguel Ángel (2004). La dinámica económica regional en México, 1940-2002. Territorio y Economía, núm. 7, Sistema de Información Regional de México, México, 12-22.
Mendoza-González, Miguel Ángel (2014). Metodología de interpolación estructural-espacial para la generación de una serie continua del PIB y población por entidad federativa, 1970-2012. Documento de trabajo, Facultad de Economía-UNAM, México.
Nourry, M. (2009). Re-Examining the Empirical Evidence for Stochastic Convergence of Two Air Pollutants with a Pair-Wise Approach. Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(4), 555-570.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10640-009-9301-9
Park H.J. and Fuller W.A. (1995). Alternative estimators and unit root tests for the autoregressive process. J Time Ser Anal, 16, 415-429.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.1995.tb00243.x
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence. Journal of Econometrics, 138, 312–355.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2006.05.024
Pesaran, M.H., Smith, R.P., Yamagata, T., Hvozdyk, L. (2009). Pairwise tests of purchasing power parity. Econometric Reviews, 28, 495–521.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07474930802473702
Phillips, P. C. B., and Sul, D. (2007). Transition modelling and econometric convergence tests. Econometrica, 75, 1771–1855.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00811.x
Quah, D. (1996a). Convergence empirics across economies with (some) capital mobility. Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 1, No. 1, 95-124.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00163344
Quah, D. (1996b). Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence. European Economic Review, Vol. 40, No. 6, 1353-1375.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(95)00051-8
Quah, D. (1997). Empirics for growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence clubs. Journal Economic Growth, Vol. 2, No. 1, 27-59.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009781613339
Rodríguez-Benavides, D., López-Herrera, F. y Mendoza-González, M. (2016b). Clubs de convergencia regional en México: un análisis a través de un modelo no lineal de un solo factor. Investigaciones Regionales, forthcoming.
Rodríguez-Benavides, D., Mendoza-González, M. y Venegas-Martínez, F. (2016a). ¿Realmente existe convergencia regional en México? Un modelo de datos-panel TAR no lineal. Economía Sociedad y Territorio, vol. XVI, núm. 50, enero-abril, 197-227.
Sastré, M. y Rey, S. (2008). Polarización espacial y dinámicas de la desigualdad interregional en México. Problemas del Desarrollo, vol. 39, núm. 155, 181-204.Ubicar correctamente las siguientes referencias:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-3744
Asuad Sanén, Normand y Quintana Romero, Luis. (2010). Crecimiento económico, convergencia y concentración económica espacial en las entidades federativas de México 1970-2008. Investigaciones Regionales, 18, 83-106.
Bernard, A. B., Durlauf, S. N. (1995). Convergence in international output. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 97–108.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.3950100202
Binder, M., Pesaran, M. H. (1999). Stochastic growth models and their econometric implications. Journal of Economic Growth 4, 139–183.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009802421114
Caraza-Herrasti, María Inés (1993). Convergencia del ingreso en la república mexicana. Tesis de licenciatura en Economía, ITAM, México.
Carrillo, Mario (2001). La teoría neoclásica de la convergencia y la realidad del desarrollo regional en México. Problemas del Desarrollo, 127 (32), Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México, 107-134.
Carrion-i-Silvestre J. L, German-Soto V. (2007). Stochastic conver-gence amongst Mexican states. Reg Stud, 41, 531–541.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00343400601120221
–––––––––– (2009). Panel Data Stochastic Convergence Analysis of the Mexican Regions. Empirical Economics,37 (2), 303–327.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-008-0234-x
Cermeño, Rodolfo (2001). Decrecimiento y convergencia de los estados mexicanos. Un análisis de panel. El Trimestre Económico, LXVIII, (272), Fondo de Cultura Económica, México, 603-629.
Díaz, J., Sánchez, A., y Mendoza, M.A. (2009). Convergencia hacia la economía regional líder en México. Un análisis de cointegración en panel. El Trimestre Económico, LXXVI (2), Fondo de Cultura Económica, México, 407-431.
Díaz-Bautista, Alejandro (2003). Apertura comercial y crecimiento regional. Comercio Exterior, 53 (11), Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior, México, 995-1000.
Díaz-Pedroza, Jesús, Armando Sánchez-Vargas y Miguel Ángel Mendoza-González (2009). Convergencia hacia la economía regional líder en México. Un análisis de cointegración en panel. El Trimestre Económico, LXXVI (2), Fondo de Cultura Económica, México, 407-431.
Durlauf, S. and Johnson, P. (1995). Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 365-84.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.3950100404
Elliot G., Rothenbeg T.J. and Stock J.H. (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64(4):813-836.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2171846
Esquivel, Gerardo (1999). Convergencia regional en México, 1940-1995. El Trimestre Económico, 264 (66), Fondo de Cultura Económica, México, 725-761.
Esquivel, Gerardo (2000). Geografia y desarrollo economico en Mexico. Latin American Research Network Working Paper 389. Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department, Washington, D.C.
Galor, O. (1996). Convergence? Inferences from theoretical models. The Economic Journal 106 (437), 1056-1069.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2235378
German-Soto V. (2005). Generación del Producto Interno Bruto Mexicano por entidad federativa, 1940–1992. El Trimestre Económico, 72, 617–653.
Germán-Soto, Vicente (2015). Population Statistics by Mexican States, from the Selected Works of Vicente German-Soto.
Juan-Ramón, Hugo y Luis Rivera-Batiz (1996). Regional growth in Mexico, 1970-1993. Working paper, núm. 96/92, International Monetary Fund, Washington, 1-36.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451951493.001
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: how sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?. Journal of Econometrics, 54 (1-3), 159-178.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-y
Le Pen, Y., Sévi, B. (2010). On the non-convergence of energy intensities: evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach. Ecol. Econ. 69, 641–650.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.10.001
Mendoza-González, Miguel Ángel (2004). La dinámica económica regional en México, 1940-2002. Territorio y Economía, núm. 7, Sistema de Información Regional de México, México, 12-22.
Mendoza-González, Miguel Ángel (2014). Metodología de interpolación estructural-espacial para la generación de una serie continua del PIB y población por entidad federativa, 1970-2012. Documento de trabajo, Facultad de Economía-UNAM, México.
Nourry, M. (2009). Re-Examining the Empirical Evidence for Stochastic Convergence of Two Air Pollutants with a Pair-Wise Approach. Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(4), 555-570.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10640-009-9301-9
Park H.J. and Fuller W.A. (1995). Alternative estimators and unit root tests for the autoregressive process. J Time Ser Anal, 16, 415-429.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.1995.tb00243.x
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence. Journal of Econometrics, 138, 312–355.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2006.05.024
Pesaran, M.H., Smith, R.P., Yamagata, T., Hvozdyk, L. (2009). Pairwise tests of purchasing power parity. Econometric Reviews, 28, 495–521.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07474930802473702
Phillips, P. C. B., and Sul, D. (2007). Transition modelling and econometric convergence tests. Econometrica, 75, 1771–1855.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00811.x
Quah, D. (1996a). Convergence empirics across economies with (some) capital mobility. Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 1, No. 1, 95-124.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00163344
Quah, D. (1996b). Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence. European Economic Review, Vol. 40, No. 6, 1353-1375.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(95)00051-8
Quah, D. (1997). Empirics for growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence clubs. Journal Economic Growth, Vol. 2, No. 1, 27-59.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009781613339
Rodríguez-Benavides, D., López-Herrera, F. y Mendoza-González, M. (2016b). Clubs de convergencia regional en México: un análisis a través de un modelo no lineal de un solo factor. Investigaciones Regionales, forthcoming.
Rodríguez-Benavides, D., Mendoza-González, M. y Venegas-Martínez, F. (2016a). ¿Realmente existe convergencia regional en México? Un modelo de datos-panel TAR no lineal. Economía Sociedad y Territorio, vol. XVI, núm. 50, enero-abril, 197-227.
Sastré, M. y Rey, S. (2008). Polarización espacial y dinámicas de la desigualdad interregional en México. Problemas del Desarrollo, vol. 39, núm. 155, 181-204.Ubicar correctamente las siguientes referencias:
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2016-05-06
How to Cite
Rodríguez-Benavides, D., Carlos Trejo García, J. ., & Mendoza González, M. Ángel . (2016). Pair-Wise Approach to Test the Regional Convergence Hypothesis in Mexico. Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 5, 59–68. https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2016.05.06
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Special Issues | Economic Growth and Convergence: Analyses for the Mexican States
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