Causality in Economics: A Menu of Approaches
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2013.02.25Keywords:
Causality in economics, causes of effects, counterfactuals, hypotheticals, effects of causes, local average treatment effectAbstract
Causality is a notion that occurs often in economics. In using the words ‘cause' and ‘effect,' economists seek to distinguish causation from association, recognizing that causes are responsible for producing effects, whereas non-causal associations are not. The identification of causes is accorded a high priority because it is viewed as the basis for understanding economic phenomena and developing policy implications. In this survey we look at different approaches to causality in economics and set out the general principles of each approach, so as to assist in the communication and teaching role. Specifically, we confine attention to five approaches to causality in economics (narrative, comparative statics, theoretical, structural, and experimentalist) and elucidate their distinctive characteristics without entering into philosophical discussions. In particular, we pay close attention to the debate between the structuralist and experimentalist schools because this controversy has been extremely useful to clarify a number of fundamental points concerning causality in economicsReferences
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.2.31
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Maddaloni, Angela and Jose-Luis Peydro. 2011. “Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area and US Lending Standards.” Review of Financial Studies 24: 2120-165.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhr015
Marschak, Jacob. 1953. “Economic Measurements for Policy and Prediction.” In Studies in Econometric Methods, W. Hood and T. Koopmans, eds., 1-26. New York: Wiley.
Marshall, Alfred. 1966. Principles of Economics. London: Macmillan. First published in 1890.
Pol, Eduardo. 2012. The Preponderant Causes of the USA Banking Crisis 2007-08. Journal of Socio-Economics 41: 519-528.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2012.04.019
Samuelson, Paul A. 1965. Foundations of Economic Analysis. New York: Atheneum. Originally published by Harvard University Press in 1947.
Schumpeter, Joseph A. 1954. History of Economic Analysis. London: George Allen & Unwin.
Sims, Christopher A. 1972. “Money, Income and Causality.” American Economic Review 62: 540-52.
Sims, Christopher. 2010. “But Economics is Not an Experimental Science.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 24: 59-68.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.2.59
Smith, Adam. 2010. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. First published in 1776.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2443.2009.01103.x
Angrist, Joshua D. 1990. “Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records.” American Economic Review 80: 313-36.
Angrist, Joshua D. Guido W. Imbens, and Donald B. Rubin. 1996. “Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 91: 444-55.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1996.10476902
Angrist, Joshua D. and Jorn-steffen Pischke. 2010. “The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better research Design is Taking the Con Out of Econometrics.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 24: 3-30.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.2.3
Archaya, Viral V. and Matthew Richardson. 2009. Restoring Financial Stability. How to Repair a Failed System. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.
Brunnermeier, Markus K. 2009. “Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 23: 77-10.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.23.1.77
Cartwright, Nancy. 2004. Causation: One Word, Many Things. Philosophy of Science 71: 805-820.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/426771
Deaton, Angus S. 2009. “Instruments of Development: Randomization in Tropics, and the Search for Elusive Keys to Economic Development.” NBER Working Paper Series. Available at http://www.nber.org/papers/w14690
Dell’Ariccia, Ciovanni, Denis Igan, LucLaeven. 2008. “Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Lending Market. International Monetary Fund Working Paper, WP/08/106:1-37.
Gennaioli, Nicola, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert W. Vishny. 2011a. “A model of Neglected Risks, Financial Innovation, and Financial Fragility.” Journal of Financial Economics104: 452-468.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.05.005
Gennaioli, Nicola, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert W. Vishny. 2013. “A Model of Shadow Banking.” Journal of Financial Economics (forthcoming).
Granger, Clive W. 1969. “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods.” Econometrica 37: 424-438.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1912791
Haavelmo, Trygve. 1943. “The Statistical Implications of a System of Simultaneous Equations.” Econometrica 11: 1-12.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1905714
Hayek, Friedrich. 1967. Studies in Philosophy, Politics and Economics. London: Routledge.
Heckman, James J. 2000. “Causal Parameters and Policy Analysis in Economics: A Twentieth Century Retrospective.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 115: 45-97.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003355300554674
Heckman, James J. 2008. “Econometric Causality.” International Statistical Review 76: 1-27.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-5823.2007.00024.x
Heckman, James J. 2010. “Building Bridges between Structural and Program Evaluation Approaches to Evaluating Policy.” Journal of Economic Literature 48: 356-98.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.48.2.356
Heckman, James J. and Sergio Urzua. 2010. “Comparing IV with Structural Models: What Simple IV Can and Cannot Identify.” Journal of Econometrics 156:27-37.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.09.006
Hicks, John R. 1979. Causality in Economics. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
Holland, Paul W. 1986. “Statistics and Causal Inference.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 81: 945-60.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1986.10478354
Imbens, Guido W. 2010. “Better LATE than Nothing: Some Comments on Deaton (2009) and Heckman and Urzua (2009).” Journal of Economic Literature 48: 399-423.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.48.2.399
Imbens, Guido W. and Joshua D. Angrist, J. 1994. “Identification and Estimation of the Local Average Treatment Effects.” Econometrica 62: 467-476.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951620
Keane, Michael P. 2010a. “Structural vs. Atheoretic Approaches to Econometrics.” Journal of Econometrics 156: 3-20.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.09.003
Keane, Michael P. 2010b. “A Structural Perspective on the Experimentalist School.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 24: 47-58.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.2.47
Landreth, Harry and David C. Colander. 2002. History of Economic Thought. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
Leamer, E. (1983) Let’s Take the Con Out of Econometrics. American Economic Review 73: 31-43.
Leamer, E. (2010) Tantalus on the Road to Asymptopia. Journal of Economic Perspectives 24: 31-46.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.2.31
Locke, John. 1960. An Essay Concerning Human Understanding. Abridged and Edited by A.S. Pringle-Patisson. Oxford: Clarendon Press. First published in 1690.
Maddaloni, Angela and Jose-Luis Peydro. 2011. “Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area and US Lending Standards.” Review of Financial Studies 24: 2120-165.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhr015
Marschak, Jacob. 1953. “Economic Measurements for Policy and Prediction.” In Studies in Econometric Methods, W. Hood and T. Koopmans, eds., 1-26. New York: Wiley.
Marshall, Alfred. 1966. Principles of Economics. London: Macmillan. First published in 1890.
Pol, Eduardo. 2012. The Preponderant Causes of the USA Banking Crisis 2007-08. Journal of Socio-Economics 41: 519-528.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2012.04.019
Samuelson, Paul A. 1965. Foundations of Economic Analysis. New York: Atheneum. Originally published by Harvard University Press in 1947.
Schumpeter, Joseph A. 1954. History of Economic Analysis. London: George Allen & Unwin.
Sims, Christopher A. 1972. “Money, Income and Causality.” American Economic Review 62: 540-52.
Sims, Christopher. 2010. “But Economics is Not an Experimental Science.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 24: 59-68.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.2.59
Smith, Adam. 2010. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. First published in 1776.
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2013-09-19
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Pol, E. (2013). Causality in Economics: A Menu of Approaches. Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 2, 356–374. https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2013.02.25
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