A Data Driven Study on the Variant of Covid-19 in Hong Kong
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.6000/1929-6029.2022.11.06Keywords:
Variant of COVID-19, ARIMA, Non-linear regression modelAbstract
The new wave of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, China was overwhelming again by “dynamic zero” strategy and non-pharmaceutical interventions (DZ-NPIs), which makes a time challenge to control the variant of this epidemic. We describe the variant of Covid-19 in Kong Hong to the infected proportion of the population, cumulative confirmed cases, cumulative deaths and current hospitalizations by age group via statistical measure firstly, then establish time series model for fitting the accumulative confirmed cases, further to predict the trend for searching out possible turning time-points. Non-linear regression model is created to feature the deaths series, then we figure out the parameters and educe the controlling condition for this epidemic. We expect our data-driven modeling process providing some insights to the controlling strategy for the new wave of the Covid-19 variant in Hong Kong, even in the mainland of China.
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